Are CWG and Asiad performances fair pointers for the Olympics ?

The last two months saw the conclusion of the second and third largest multi-sports events in the Asian Games and the Commonwealth Games. The media hailed has hailed the performance of the Indian athletes in these two events. Considering the media's habit of exaggeration, it is bound to absolutely slam the athletes if they fail to do as well in the Olympics.

One should, therefore, consider the performance of the sports persons in these two events and make a fair judgement with regard to the prospects in the Olympics where the competition is a lot tougher.

Let us look at some disciplines where India did pretty well in CWG and Asiad and judge whether the performances can lead to a medal in Olympics or not:

1. Shooting : Shooting is one of the disciplines that India can be optimistic about. A great show in the CWG followed by a decent haul of 8 medals in world-class competition at the Asian games gives a lot of hope about shooting at the Olympics. Results in shooting depend a lot upon the form of the shooter on the day of the event and India with a fair number of shooters in the top 10 in various disciplines can hope for a realistic 3-4 medals in shooting.
Medal Prospects : Gagan Narang, Abhinav Bindra, Tejaswini Sawant, Ronjan Sodhi, Vijay Kumar, Manavjit Singh Sandhu

2. Boxing : The recent emergence of boxers from India on the world stage has suddenly uplifted this sport from oblivion to one of the most keenly followed Olympic sports in India with a number of boxers receiving their due recognition. A decent showing at both the CWG and Asian games raises hopes of a good show in the Olympics where there would be some additional competition from Cuba and the East-European nations. Still, a haul of 3-4 medals is quite realistic.
Medal Prospects : Vijender Singh, Mary Kom, Suranjoy Singh, Other Bhiwani factory boxers

3. Archery : More than the performance in the CWG, the performance in the Asian Games is a reason to cheer as the performances were achieved against the top nations in Archery like South Korea, China and Taipei. With the current progress, India should manage a couple of medals in archery.

4. Wrestling : India performed exceptionally in the CWG but could manage only three bronze medals through the Repechage rounds. With Sushil Kumar coming back for the Olympics, India should be expecting a medal from him.

5. Tennis : India's great performance in both CWG and Asian games should not lead to great expectations for tennis at the Olympics. India benefitted from a greatly depleted field at the CWG and India has alwasy been a tennis powerhouse in Asia. The only medal hope still remains the pair of Leander and Bhupati who lost the bronze medal play-off in Athens and in the Quarters in Beijing. Hope they do one better in their last Olympics at London.

6. Badminton : It should be quite clear that Saina Nehwal would be the only realistic hope for a medal in Badminton. With the progress she is making on the international scene, it might be a possibility. It would all boil down to her ability to win under pressure as she sure does have the talent.

7. Athletics : India did manage to get a decent haul of medals but replicating the success at the Olympics would be a very bleak possibility as India has always managed medals in these two events but compares rather poorly when competing with the Track and Field powerhouses in the Olympics. The IOA still believes that Tintu Luka (800m runner and PT Usha Prodigy) is a medal prospect but she would require extensive training and a better running strategy if she wants to be in the finals leave alone win a medal.

Winning medals in sports such as Weightlifting, Table Tennis,Squash etc. would be near impossible task at the Olympics and Indian Hockey team needs to improve a lot to compete with the best in the world.

The medals in Aquatics and Gymnastics should be seen more as a stepping stone towards development of the respective sports rather than as medal prospects for the 2012 Olympics.

Hence my prediction for India's medal haul at Olympics 2012 would be close to 7-9 medals hoping that at least of third of them are the yellow metal medals. It would be a great improvement on the previous editions but still too little for a country of India's size.

So, it can be agreed upon that Indian Sports is definitely looking up and moving the the right direction with the government stepping in to help the sports persons and the formation of organisations such as Olympic Gold Quest. Hope these steps continue and we see India as a sports powerhouse in our lifetimes.